Cabinet & Insiders
White House weighs the Defense Production Act to expand US refining
With American refineries running flat out and diesel at a record, the administration is examining wartime industrial powers to add capacity.
Friday, September 11, 2026
Rival Hegemons
Anthropic says state-linked actors used Claude for weapons work and surveillance
A threat report from the AI company describes attempts to build missile guidance software, run propaganda networks and compile dossiers on dissidents.
Tech Oligarchs
Altman says OpenAI is open to slowing frontier AI development
The chief executive told staff the company would consider easing the pace of its most advanced work, and hopes rivals do the same.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan seen raising rates to 1.25% in next week’s bigger shock
Markets have rapidly repriced the odds that Japan’s central bank tightens again, days after the Federal Reserve’s own decision.
GDP & Macro Reality
Consumer sentiment falls to 47.8, the second-lowest reading on record
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September index dropped from 51.7 in August as gasoline prices climbed and inflation expectations rose.
Government & Institutional
Appeals court strikes down the order keeping a Michigan coal plant open
The D.C. Circuit found the Energy Department failed to justify forcing the J.H. Campbell plant to keep running past its retirement date.
Rival Hegemons
Chinese AI chip prices jump 50% as memory shortages bite
Export controls meant to blunt China’s AI build-out have made its domestic accelerators dearer rather than cheaper.
Adversary’s Veto
Iran and Gulf states set Hormuz talks in Oman and oil falls back
The first sign of diplomacy over the world’s most important oil chokepoint moved crude further than any macro release this week.
GDP & Macro Reality
UK economy grows 0.4% in July, defying forecasts before the Bank of England meets
Analysts had predicted no growth at all, and the surprise arrives with borrowing costs and inflation risks both climbing.
Empire-Behavior
Panama Canal caps daily transits again as El Nino drought returns
The canal authority is rationing slots into next year, putting up to US$10 billion of Caribbean imports at risk.
Structural Indicators
Thirty-year Treasury auction draws record foreign demand at a 5.3% yield
Foreign investors took nearly 80% of a $22 billion long-bond sale, complicating the story that overseas buyers are walking away.
Structural Indicators
US budget deficit reaches $1.97 trillion with a month of the fiscal year left
August’s shortfall came in far below forecast on timing shifts, leaving the year-to-date gap essentially flat against last year.
Tech Oligarchs
A researcher’s resignation puts AI extinction risk in front of Congress
An Anthropic researcher quit over safety concerns, Congress began scrambling for a response, and the Pentagon’s technology chief publicly rejected the warning.
Fed & Monetary Policy
August inflation lands at 3.4% and rate-hike odds jump to 90%
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, and futures markets now put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week at 90%.
Cabinet & Insiders
Bessent presses financial power abroad while the bond rout deepens at home
The Treasury Secretary is sanctioning a large bank, talking the yen higher and buying back long-term debt, with the bond market so far unmoved.
Financial Regulation
Better Markets sues the Fed over Bowman’s bank capital rulemaking
A Washington nonprofit has sued the Federal Reserve and its vice chair for supervision over private contacts with Wall Street banks during an open comment process.
Rival Hegemons
BRICS meets in Delhi with Putin and Xi present and the bloc under strain
India is hosting a BRICS summit attended by both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, while trying to steer the expanded bloc away from an explicitly anti-Western turn.
Fed & Monetary Policy
ECB raises rates a quarter point and lifts both inflation and growth forecasts
The European Central Bank delivered its second quarter-point increase of the year, taking the deposit rate to 2.5% as oil above $100 a barrel feeds euro-area inflation.
Adversary’s Veto
Hormuz transits fall to single digits as tanker attacks continue
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to seven in a day, even as Washington says it has loosened Iran’s grip on the waterway.
Adversary’s Veto
Houthis seize Perim Island and take control of Bab el-Mandeb
Iran-backed Houthi fighters have captured the island that divides the Bab el-Mandeb strait into its two shipping lanes, completing their hold on Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
Structural Indicators
Oil heads for a weekly close above $100 as diesel sets a record
Both major crude benchmarks are on track to end the week above $100 a barrel, and the US average diesel price has passed $6 a gallon for the first time.
Financial Regulation
Private credit strains as $100 oil meets climbing Treasury yields
Direct lending is being tested from two sides at once, with input costs rising for leveraged borrowers and the benchmark yield they refinance against moving higher.
Structural Indicators
Ten-year Treasury yield closes on 5% as the bond selloff turns global
A weak long-bond auction and an enlarged Treasury buyback failed to halt a selloff that has pushed the benchmark US yield to the edge of 5%.
GDP & Macro Reality
Trump’s $5,000 dividend pledge meets a trillion-dollar price tag
The president has promised every US adult a $5,000 payment if Republicans win the midterms, and independent estimates put the cost above $1 trillion.