Bessent forecasts $40 oil as Washington tightens Iran’s finances

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts oil prices could fall to between $40 and $50 once the Iran conflict ends, saying abundant supply is waiting to reach the market⁴. He estimated on Sunday that Iran has only 30 million barrels of crude left to sell, and that the remaining buyer is China^5,7.

Bessent said the administration’s goal was to economically asphyxiate Iran in order to force it to negotiate⁶. The forecast and the sanctions campaign are two halves of one argument: that cutting Iranian barrels out of the market now produces lower prices later.

The campaign behind the forecast

The pressure campaign has a name. Operation Economic Outcast was launched on 24 August and rolled out aggressive secondary sanctions⁷, a campaign Bessent began in order to sever Iran’s financial links³.

The design of the campaign is what makes the oil forecast plausible on its own terms. Secondary sanctions reach the banks and counterparties that handle Iranian trade rather than Iran alone, which is how a blockade of one exporter becomes a constraint on every institution that might clear its payments^7,8.

It is not yet airtight. Iran is still moving billions through US banks despite the sanctions push, a vulnerability that sits at the centre of the operation³. One account of the blockade traces how Washington escalated steadily over many years, with secondary sanctions first imposed in 2010⁸, and maps the options still left to Tehran⁸.

How Tehran responded

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded sarcastically to the $40 forecast¹ and dismissed the prediction as delusional². He mocked the projection publicly on Sunday⁹.

His rebuttal cited Japan and Norway, along with growing concerns over inflation and interest rates, and told Bessent to warm up properly before he takes off¹⁰. Whatever the rhetoric, the disagreement is a genuine one about supply: the Treasury’s case assumes barrels flood back, while Tehran’s assumes the market stays tight.

For investors the forecast matters beyond the Gulf. A $40 to $50 crude assumption underpins the administration’s argument that inflation will fall and that policy rates should follow⁴, which puts a political forecast inside the same debate the Federal Reserve is now having. The near-term test is whether Iranian exports actually stop, given that the secretary’s own estimate leaves 30 million barrels still to be sold⁵.