India supplied 60% of Europe-bound diesel through Bab-el-Mandeb in August

Indian refiners supplied about 60 per cent of the diesel that transited the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe⁵. Indian refineries accounted for around 60 per cent of the fuel passing through the strait towards Europe during the month¹, and India accounted for 60 percent of the diesel transiting to Europe according to a report from an energy consultancy cited across Indian media².

Around 200,000 barrels per day of diesel and gasoil passed through the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe⁹. That volume was close to year-earlier levels⁸, and nearly matched the same month a year before⁹.

Why the share moved

The shift is one of origin rather than volume. India filled Europe’s diesel gap as Russian exports slumped and US shipments declined⁶, and supplied around 60 per cent of the diesel and gasoil moving through the strait as constrained Russian exports and falling US flows left room⁶.

India emerged as a major diesel supplier to Europe amid the fall in Russian exports¹, becoming a key source as Russian export disruptions continued⁴. NDTV Profit describes the result as India capturing 60 per cent of Europe’s eastern diesel transit as US and Russian exports plunge⁹. PTI frames the same development as India emerging as a key supplier as Russian and US flows falter⁷.

What it means for investors

The headline number to hold on to is that total flow held roughly steady while its composition changed completely^8,9. Europe did not lose barrels on this route; it changed the refinery that produced them. For diesel cracks, that is a very different situation from an outright shortage.

It also concentrates risk. A single origin now accounts for roughly three fifths of the diesel moving to Europe through one narrow waterway^3,5. Any interruption to Indian refinery runs, or to transit through the Bab-el-Mandeb itself, would remove a share of European supply that no longer has an obvious Russian or American substitute standing behind it⁶.

The volumes involved are modest against total European demand but material at the margin, at roughly 200,000 barrels per day on this route alone³. Refining margins for Indian exporters, and freight rates on the passage, are the two places where the change shows up first.