US and Iran trade strikes as Tehran prepares a restricted zone beyond Hormuz

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said a restricted zone will be announced outside the Strait of Hormuz in the next few days¹. Tehran has said it will act against vessels beyond the strait itself⁸, and reports describe the planned measure as an extension of an exclusion zone⁵.

The declaration follows a weekend of direct exchanges. The US Navy struck three Iranian vessels, sinking one and disabling two, after fresh Iranian attacks on American warships near the strait². Al Jazeera reported that US forces attacked three crude carriers linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday³, and The National reported that the IRGC then said it had targeted US warships in return⁸. Centcom has denied Iranian claims of a successful attack on a US military vessel⁵.

The waterway itself

The two sides do not agree on whether the strait is open. Al Jazeera reported Hormuz traffic falling even as the US insisted the waterway was fully open³, while Vietnamese state media reported Iran keeping Hormuz closed and US Central Command intercepting 92 vessels since restrictions were imposed⁴. Separately, Iran said a deal with Oman to manage shipping through the strait is imminent, a move that could tighten Tehran’s control over traffic⁷.

American operations there have been running longer than the public exchanges suggest. The Financial Times reported that the United States conducted a covert four-month operation to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz, deploying Navy SEAL divers and robotic boats⁹.

Why it matters to investors

Oil prices rose on Monday, extending sharp weekly gains, as the attacks on vessels in and around the strait continued⁶. Brent crude futures rose 79 cents, or 0.82 per cent⁵. The moves are modest relative to the headlines, which is itself the signal: the market is pricing disruption to transit rather than closure.

The structural risk is the announced zone. A declared restricted area outside the strait¹, combined with a bilateral arrangement with Oman over shipping management⁷, would shift the question from whether tankers can pass to who grants permission. For shipowners and insurers, that is a change in the nature of the risk, not just its level.

What to watch

The formal announcement of the restricted zone and its boundaries is the immediate item^1,8. Watch also whether the Oman arrangement is signed⁷, whether the interception count reported by Central Command keeps rising⁴, and whether traffic through the strait continues to fall³.