Brent Holds Above $100 and Goldman Calls $120 Plausible

Oil futures remained firmly above $100 a barrel for a second day as energy flows from the Gulf slowed¹⁰. Brent surpassed the $100 mark as Middle East tensions escalated, with two analysts from ING Bank citing the escalation and CENTCOM noting that one vessel, the M/T Riesco, sank in the Gulf of Oman⁸. The BBC reported the price of oil jumping to $105 a barrel amid signs the Iran war will not be resolved quickly⁶.

By Thursday, France 24 put Brent above $106 as Iran-aligned Houthis gained further leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping routes⁷. Econbrowser’s reading of EIA data put cash crude at $97.87, with NYMEX futures at $101.47 a barrel⁹.

Why it matters to investors

Goldman Sachs has moved its numbers. The research group, headed by Daan Struyven, added $5 per barrel to its forecasts and now sees Brent at $85 and WTI at $80 for December 2026⁵. Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC that continued Persian Gulf oil exports remain his base case, but that $120 Brent is now plausible¹.

Novinite reported that Struyven called such a scenario possible, although it is not the bank’s base case⁴. A separate account said the ongoing escalation raises the risk of prices surging above $120². Goldman’s commodities team also said Brent could exceed $120 depending on average Gulf production in 2027³.

What to watch

The transmission into interest rates is already visible. Oil’s return to $100 reignited inflation fears and traders significantly increased bets on rate rises, with the interest-rate swaps market repricing Bank of England expectations¹¹. The euro was firm ahead of the European Central Bank decision while $100 oil dampened activity in currency markets¹⁰. The BBC linked the same move to a surge in borrowing costs⁶.

The forecast path is worth holding on to. Goldman’s December numbers, $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, sit below the spot market even after the bank added $5 a barrel to its assumptions⁵. Novinite framed the week as Brent topping $100 and raising fears of $120 oil⁴. The BBC reported gas and borrowing costs surging alongside crude⁶.

One framing of the risk is that the economy is running out of shock absorbers at $100 oil². What breaks first if Brent reaches $120 is the question analysts are now working through³, and the answer depends on whether Gulf exports keep flowing, which remains Goldman’s base case¹.