GDP & Macro Reality

Watchdog puts a price on the DOGE buyouts

The Government Accountability Office found federal agencies paid $9.5 billion in employee leave in 2025, most of it to staff who had already agreed to leave.

Assembled by Claude from 10 sources at 10 outlets · Wednesday, September 16, 2026, Evening edition, 5:12 PM EDT · no human byline

Disclosure. This item was assembled by an AI from the RSS excerpts of the outlets tagged inline. No human wrote or checked it before publication. Feed selection and categories are editorial choices by Teresa Lo. Nothing here is investment advice.

What happened

A Government Accountability Office report found that federal employees were paid $9.5 billion not to work during the effort to shrink the government independent.co.uk. Of that, $6.7 billion went to the deferred resignation programme, the buyout offer nicknamed the fork in the road news.bloomberglaw.com. Separate coverage put the deferred resignation cost at nearly $7 billion thehill.com and the total leave bill at nearly $10 billion govexec.com.

About 139,963 workers ultimately accepted the offer, according to federal workforce data cited by the GAO timesofindia.indiatimes.com. The government lost more than 300,000 workers in 2025, many through layoffs and voluntary departures news.bloomberglaw.com, and the federal workforce has shrunk by more than 271,000 employees as of July according to data published by the Office of Personnel Management nbcnews.com.

Why it matters to investors

This is a cost line arriving against savings that were already disputed. DOGE's claim of $110 billion in savings was described as vastly inflated and riddled with errors abcnews.com, and some departments have since reversed cuts and rehired workers abcnews.com. The arithmetic of a smaller state gets harder when the exit itself is expensive.

The administration's own position is that the payback still comes. OPM director Scott Kupor said in his response to the GAO's findings that despite the increased spending he expects cost savings from the programme federalnewsnetwork.com, and he has previously said the deferred resignation scheme would save taxpayers $20 billion each year govexec.com. Officials have pointed to what they call a 400% return on investment cbsnews.com. One Democrat called the cuts the most expensive way imaginable to make government worse independent.co.uk.

What to watch

The test is whether the annual savings claim survives contact with the next audit. The buyout cost is booked and measurable; the $20 billion a year is a projection govexec.com, and the gap between the two is the whole argument federalnewsnetwork.com.

Watch the rehiring. If departments keep reversing cuts and bringing staff back abcnews.com, the workforce reduction shrinks while the severance bill stays spent. Watch the headcount series too, since the more than 271,000 figure is an as-of-July snapshot from OPM rather than a settled total nbcnews.com. And watch how the numbers are framed politically as the audit findings circulate: the same report is being read as a $6.7 billion buyout bill politico.com and as a $9.5 billion leave bill timesofindia.indiatimes.com, and which framing sticks will shape how much credibility the next round of claimed savings gets.

Sources

  1. news.bloomberglaw.com: Taxpayers Foot $6.7 Billion Bill for Trump Resignation Incentive - Bloomberg Law (2026-09-16)
  2. independent.co.uk: Federal employees were paid billions not to work due to DOGE policies - The Independent (2026-09-16)
  3. timesofindia.indiatimes.com: Trump admin paid $9.5 billion to federal workers to stay home in 2025: Report | World News (2026-09-16)
  4. nbcnews.com: Trump administration spent $9.5 billion last year on employee leave, driven by DOGE-era cuts (2026-09-16)
  5. politico.com: Trump administration paid federal workers $6.7B to quit, GAO audit says - POLITICO (2026-09-16)
  6. thehill.com: Federal employees were paid nearly $7B not to work under DOGE effort: GAO (2026-09-16)
  7. federalnewsnetwork.com: Trump administration's DRP cost $6.7B last year, watchdog estimates (2026-09-16)
  8. govexec.com: Agencies spent nearly $10 billion for feds not to work in 2025 - Government Executive (2026-09-15)
  9. cbsnews.com: Trump administration paid $9.5 billion in leave for federal employees in 2025, due to DOGE ... (2026-09-16)
  10. abcnews.com: Federal government paid employees $9.5 billion not to work in 2025: Report - ABC News (2026-09-16)