IRGC claims control of the Strait of Hormuz and CENTCOM rejects it

A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander said Iran’s forces completely control the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported, alongside Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s claims about Iran’s military position². United States Central Command disputed that claim on Monday, ABC News reported³.

“Iran has no navy because American forces sank it,” Central Command said on the social media platform X, according to Anadolu⁴. Middle East Eye also reported Central Command rejecting the Guard’s claim of complete control over Hormuz⁶. The Central Command commander said more than one billion barrels of oil transited the strait safely in two months, Voice of Emirates reported⁷.

Al Jazeera’s live coverage carried Tehran’s warning that it is fully prepared for war amid the tensions over the strait². ABC News reported the exchange as part of a day dominated by diplomatic traffic, including the arrival of the Saudi foreign minister in the United States³.

What the traffic data shows

Transit counts describe a contested but moving waterway. Data Portuaria reported that Strait of Hormuz crossings rose 13.8% to 132 between 21 and 27 September, with laden movements recovering from 50 to 65, while Bab el-Mandeb traffic also rebounded amid renewed maritime attacks⁵.

Iran International reported that an outlet linked to the Guard said Iranian forces targeted 19 ships in the strait, and tied the claims to President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal for a swift reopening⁸. The Guard’s navy separately claimed it had seized a second United States military underwater drone in the strait, Marine Insight reported¹.

Marine Insight described the drone seizure as the second such claim, which places it in a pattern rather than a single incident¹. Data Portuaria’s figures cover both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the two chokepoints now affected at once⁵.

Why it matters to investors

The oil and tanker risk premium is being priced off two incompatible descriptions. One side claims complete control²; the other reports more than one billion barrels moving through safely over two months⁷. The transit count sits between them, recovering rather than halted⁵.

Diplomacy is running in parallel with the claims. Al Jazeera reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi was due to meet mediators in New York², while Iran International tied the escalation to the rejection of the reopening proposal⁸.

What to watch: whether weekly crossings keep recovering from the 132 reported for 21 to 27 September⁵, whether Central Command updates its safe-passage figure⁷, and whether further seizures follow the drone claim^1,4.