US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since 2014

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index registered 81.9 for September against a consensus of 89.2 and a previous reading of 88.6¹. That is a fall of 6.7 points on the month and a miss against expectations⁵. The reading is the lowest since 2014³.

Econbrowser noted that the index is currently three standard deviations below its mean, measured against the 2021 to 2025 period¹. A second account confirmed the actual reading of 81.9 and described it as signalling caution ahead².

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, released the preceding Friday, fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August⁴. That survey also recorded a 7% decline on the month, leaving it at the second-lowest level on record⁶.

Why it matters to investors

Two independent surveys moving together is harder to dismiss than one. The Conference Board gauge and the Michigan gauge are constructed differently and are not interchangeable³, so a simultaneous drop in both points to a broad deterioration in how households see their finances rather than a quirk of one methodology.

Equity indexes slid as investors digested the confidence data⁵. The size of the miss matters as much as the level: a print of 81.9 against a consensus of 89.2¹ means forecasters were not positioned for this.

Consumer confidence is an imperfect predictor of actual spending, but the gap between the two Michigan readings, 48.1 in September against 51.7 in August⁴, describes a rapid change in sentiment rather than a gradual drift.

The Michigan survey’s fall to its second-lowest level on record⁶ is the more striking of the two, because that series has a longer history and has already absorbed several recessions without reaching this level.

What to watch

The first test is whether the sentiment drop shows up in hard spending data. Confidence surveys can fall on prices and news coverage without households changing behaviour.

The second is revisions and the next monthly print. The Conference Board index fell 6.7 points in a single month⁵; a stabilisation would suggest a one-off reaction, while a second decline of similar size would take the series well below its 2014 marker³.

The third is the distance from the historical range. At three standard deviations below the mean of the 2021 to 2025 period¹, the September reading is an outlier by the standards of the recent past, and outliers either mark a turning point or get revised away.

A fourth question is whether the two surveys keep moving together. They are built differently and should not be read as one measure³, so a divergence in the next round would be as informative as this month’s agreement.