US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since 2014
The Conference Board index came in at 81.9 for September, far below consensus, while the University of Michigan gauge fell to its second-lowest reading on record.
Assembled by Claude from 6 sources at 6 outlets · Tuesday, September 29, 2026, Evening edition, 5:22 PM EDT · no human byline
What happened
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index registered 81.9 for September against a consensus of 89.2 and a previous reading of 88.6 econbrowser.com. That is a fall of 6.7 points on the month and a miss against expectations schaeffersresearch.com. The reading is the lowest since 2014 mishtalk.com.
Econbrowser noted that the index is currently three standard deviations below its mean, measured against the 2021 to 2025 period econbrowser.com. A second account confirmed the actual reading of 81.9 and described it as signalling caution ahead hellenicshippingnews.com.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, released the preceding Friday, fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August english.news.cn. That survey also recorded a 7% decline on the month, leaving it at the second-lowest level on record ua.news.
Why it matters to investors
Two independent surveys moving together is harder to dismiss than one. The Conference Board gauge and the Michigan gauge are constructed differently and are not interchangeable mishtalk.com, so a simultaneous drop in both points to a broad deterioration in how households see their finances rather than a quirk of one methodology.
Equity indexes slid as investors digested the confidence data schaeffersresearch.com. The size of the miss matters as much as the level: a print of 81.9 against a consensus of 89.2 econbrowser.com means forecasters were not positioned for this.
Consumer confidence is an imperfect predictor of actual spending, but the gap between the two Michigan readings, 48.1 in September against 51.7 in August english.news.cn, describes a rapid change in sentiment rather than a gradual drift.
The Michigan survey's fall to its second-lowest level on record ua.news is the more striking of the two, because that series has a longer history and has already absorbed several recessions without reaching this level.
What to watch
The first test is whether the sentiment drop shows up in hard spending data. Confidence surveys can fall on prices and news coverage without households changing behaviour.
The second is revisions and the next monthly print. The Conference Board index fell 6.7 points in a single month schaeffersresearch.com; a stabilisation would suggest a one-off reaction, while a second decline of similar size would take the series well below its 2014 marker mishtalk.com.
The third is the distance from the historical range. At three standard deviations below the mean of the 2021 to 2025 period econbrowser.com, the September reading is an outlier by the standards of the recent past, and outliers either mark a turning point or get revised away.
A fourth question is whether the two surveys keep moving together. They are built differently and should not be read as one measure mishtalk.com, so a divergence in the next round would be as informative as this month's agreement.
Sources
- econbrowser.com: Confidence Slips (Way) Below Consensus (2026-09-29)
- hellenicshippingnews.com: US Consumer Confidence Falls Short of Expectations, Signals Caution Ahead (2026-09-29)
- mishtalk.com: US Consumer Confidence Plunges to the Lowest Level Since 2014 - MishTalk (2026-09-29)
- english.news.cn: U.S. consumer confidence drops sharply in September - Xinhua (2026-09-29)
- schaeffersresearch.com: Major Indexes Slide as Investors Digest Consumer Sentiment Data (2026-09-29)
- ua.news: US consumer confidence index falls to 81.9 in September — CNBC - UA.NEWS (2026-09-29)