US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level in more than a decade

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following two prior months of softening¹⁴. That is the lowest level since 2014^7,11,12. The Hill and Marketplace described the reading as a 12-year low^1,8. The research group attributed the fall to elevated oil prices and inflation worries¹⁴.

A separate sentiment gauge told the same story. Its final results for September showed the Index for Consumer Sentiment declined by 7% compared with a month ago³. Retail Dive reported sentiment at a four-month low, while noting consumers have shown no matching pullback in spending². Al Jazeera said the drop landed ahead of the midterms⁷.

Reuters-syndicated coverage carried by WITN described households facing rising costs as confidence fell to a 12-year low⁵.

Why it matters to investors

Spending has held up even as the mood has not. Spending by wealthier families has masked cuts by lower-income families, which is why consumer spending has stayed resilient¹. Yahoo Finance and Semafor tied the fall to unexpectedly weak jobs figures and elevated energy prices^4,15.

The labour market reading inside the survey was the weakest part. Finding a job felt hardest since 2021 in the Conference Board survey¹³. CNBC reported that optimism slid to its lowest since 2014 as fears escalated over rising prices and jobs¹¹. Price concerns hit new highs in the same survey³.

What to watch

One forecaster said any near-term rebound in sentiment will largely hinge on when global oil supplies stabilise, and whether drivers see relief at the pump⁵. Sentiment has been weighed down by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and by geopolitical tensions⁹. The Federal Reserve is set to make another decision on interest rates at its October 27-28 meeting⁷.

For historical scale, the University of Michigan survey, which has tracked consumer attitudes for 50 years, hit a record low of its own this past April¹⁰. TheStreet noted that confidence had softened through the summer before September’s move surprised forecasters ahead of the holidays⁶.

MishTalk cautioned that the Conference Board report is not the only gauge, and that consumer sentiment sits just above record lows¹². Al Jazeera placed the reading in the political calendar, noting that it lands ahead of the midterms and adds pressure on Republicans as sentiment tumbles⁷.