Crude reverses to an October high and Goldman lifts its December target to $90

Geopolitical tension lifted oil prices to an October high at the start of the week, raising inflation worries and quelling hopes of substantially lighter interest rates in the near term, Interactive Brokers said in its Monday market note³. The Wall Street Journal attributed the rebound to doubts about the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and to a Houthi attack on a Saudi airport¹. OilPrice said crude jumped 2 percent as the Saudi attacks and tanker strikes revived fears about the Strait of Hormuz, outweighing President Donald Trump’s announcements².

TradingKey said Brent topped $107 after the attack on the Saudi airport⁴. Goldman Sachs raised its December oil price target to $90, citing what it called significant risk from the Iran war, according to an account of the bank’s note published by Yahoo Finance⁵. Prices had retreated at the end of last week, dragging energy stocks lower, after Trump claimed a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire⁶.

Why it matters to investors

Interactive Brokers tied the move directly to the rate debate, saying the oil-driven inflation worry cut hopes of substantially lighter policy in the near term³. MarketWatch, covering the session, said the Dow gained while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped as chip stocks dipped and oil rose⁷.

The Journal said flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below normal after tanker attacks late last week fuelled volatility¹. Goldman’s strategists, led by Daan Struyven, said an eventual recovery and adjustment of Middle East supply could exert downward pressure on prices⁴, and the bank said Persian Gulf oil exports have largely recovered to pre-war levels⁵. Those two readings sit uneasily together: recovered export volumes alongside a raised price forecast.

What to watch

The spread between the two main benchmarks is one place the disruption shows. Capital Brief quoted Struyven saying West Texas Intermediate is unusually low against Brent because of high US to Europe shipping costs⁶, so freight rather than crude supply is setting part of that gap.

OilPrice framed the session as supply risk reasserting itself over diplomacy², and the Journal framed it as the market discounting the ceasefire announcement¹. For investors the near-term markers are Hormuz throughput¹, whether the announced truce holds, and whether the oil move feeds into this week’s inflation data, which Interactive Brokers said had already dented expectations for rate relief³.