Attacks on Hormuz shipping reach a wartime high as Europe faces winter with low gas reserves

Iranian attacks targeted six ships near the Strait of Hormuz in one day, the highest number since the war with the United States began, Anadolu Agency reported⁵. The Financial Times said ships in and around the strait are facing the most intense period of missile and drone attacks by Iran since the start of the war². Oil flows through the strait fell sharply toward the end of last week, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by The Wall Street Journal³.

Forecasters have pushed back the date they expect the waterway to function normally. Fitch Ratings said its base case assumes a durable agreement to reopen the strait will be reached in the first quarter of 2027⁶. The International Monetary Fund now expects the strait to reopen in March 2027, with conditions returning to a pre-war state by October 2027, CNBC reported⁴. Those are forecasts by a rating agency and by the fund, not announced terms^4,6.

Why it matters to investors

Europe is the exposed buyer this quarter. It heads into winter with low gas reserves and uncertain Gulf supplies, The Wall Street Journal reported, noting that the disruption at the strait stranded nearly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas flows¹. The paper quoted the market as grappling with the prospect of going through a large part of the season in that position¹.

Oil has not priced the escalation in a straight line. Prices fell as traders weighed Middle East risks against Russian diesel supplies, even as flows through the strait dropped³. That divergence between physical disruption and crude prices is the trade to watch rather than the headline attack count^3,5.

The reopening forecasts are what give the disruption a term structure. If the strait stays shut until early 2027 on Fitch’s base case, then this winter’s European gas position is not a spike to be ridden out but the first of two^1,6.

What to watch

Asia’s exposure is structural. Southeast Asia imports 60% of its crude oil from sources that must pass through the strait, which makes the crisis an accelerator of that region’s energy vulnerability⁷. A prolonged closure therefore shifts freight and insurance costs well beyond the Gulf^1,7.

Watch the attack tempo itself, since the record day reported by Anadolu and the Financial Times’ description of the most intense period of the war are the clearest indicators that the reopening forecasts could slip again^2,5,6.