Seven vessels hit near Hormuz, Iran’s Guards say, as they threaten US bases over tanker escorts

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said on Thursday that four vessels it accused of illegal oil transfers were hit simultaneously and caught fire^1,9. The Guards said they struck the four ships while they were transferring oil ship to ship in the northern Persian Gulf, and that three more vessels struck mines⁵. Iran’s government put the total at seven oil tankers on fire or damaged in the Strait of Hormuz^2,3.

Iranian state television reported that the seven tankers were either struck by attacks or hit naval mines¹⁰. Other accounts say the ships caught fire or were damaged overnight after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines¹¹. The Guards described the ships as “violating” vessels⁹.

The Guards also threatened to strike American bases across the Middle East if the US military continues to escort ships through Hormuz^6,7. They warned the United States of a wider response^1,4.

Why it matters to investors

The attacks come as the market has adapted to the war. Oil moving through Hormuz, Gulf pipelines and other alternative routes last week surpassed the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels¹². Gulf countries exported 24.6 million barrels, more than before the war, despite the surge in Hormuz attacks¹³. Coverage of the claimed strikes notes that exports, helped by alternative bypass pipelines, have surpassed pre-war levels⁸.

Moving that oil has become far more expensive. The International Energy Agency put the cost of shipping Gulf oil above $37 a barrel, five times pre-war levels¹⁴. Oil prices rose and flights were disrupted for UAE residents as tensions escalated near the strait¹⁶.

Traders are betting that oil prices will stay elevated for longer than they expected only weeks ago, threatening to prolong inflationary pressure on businesses and consumers¹⁵. Inventories have cushioned the loss of Middle Eastern supply, but much of that buffer has been depleted since the war began¹⁵. That undercuts the logic central banks use to look through energy shocks as a one-time shift in relative prices rather than an ongoing inflationary process¹⁵. Hopes for relief in 2027 are fading fast¹⁵.

What to watch

The immediate question is whether Washington continues its escorts after the Guards’ threat to American bases^6,7. A strike on a US base would move the confrontation beyond shipping.

Markets will also watch whether Gulf exports can stay above the pre-war average if attacks spread to more tankers and mines^12,13. Freight costs, already five times pre-war levels, are the most direct gauge of that strain¹⁴. For central banks, the test is whether oil stays high enough into next year to keep energy prices feeding inflation¹⁵.