US and Israel plan renewed Iran strikes after the midterms as Washington pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia

The United States and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the elections¹. The planning is aimed at the period after 3 November, when the US midterms take place^2,3. The campaign under discussion has been described as massive⁴. One account says interest was expressed in dropping the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B “Mother of all Bombs”⁴. Separately, the United States and Israel are planning for a possible attack on Iran, a source said⁵.

At the same time, Washington ordered some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalate^6,7. US embassy staff and their families have been told to leave^8,9. US troops and diplomats are also evacuating posts elsewhere in the Middle East, according to sources¹⁰.

Some of President Trump’s advisers, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have been privately advocating a resumption of military operations against Iran¹⁰. Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel⁶.

Why it matters to investors

Dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets flew a sortie on Monday as far as the Iranian border, more than 800 miles from Israel, according to Israeli and US officials¹². Some officials said the flight was meant to deter Iran and was not unusual, but it could have triggered an Iranian response and reignited the war¹². Israel’s military did not plan to strike Iran before its own election, despite earlier reports¹¹.

The Houthi campaign is already squeezing Gulf logistics. Saudi Arabia has relied on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb as alternative routes for oil exports since the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz^7,13. Airlines had rerouted Riyadh flights to an airport four hours’ drive away while the capital’s airport was closed after a deadly Houthi attack almost two weeks ago¹⁴. The airport has since resumed some operations¹³.

Iran’s uncertain leadership adds to the risk. US and Israeli intelligence officials regard the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, as an enigma¹. Tehran has threatened to use what it calls the “Father of All Bombs”³.

What to watch

The timeline now runs through the US vote on 3 November². Further evacuations from Gulf embassies would signal that Washington expects Iranian or Houthi retaliation against US personnel^8,10.

Saudi Arabia’s reliance on Red Sea routes leaves its exports exposed if Houthi attacks widen^7,13. Any decision to resume strikes would test whether shipping through those alternative routes can hold up¹³.