Goldman Sachs cuts its gold forecasts to $4,150 for 2026 and $4,800 for 2027, citing the risk of more Fed hikes

Goldman Sachs strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven cut their year-end 2026 gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650⁴. They also cut their end-2027 target to $4,800⁴, lower than a previous projection of $5,400².

The cuts were made in a 5 November report titled “Precious Metals Analyst Report: Long-Term Bullish on Gold”³. The strategists cited the potential for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and the central bank’s recent hawkish shift^2,3.

They wrote that portfolio positioning is likely to adapt to the central bank’s shift¹, and the bank argued it is early to buy the metal¹.

Why it matters to investors

The forecast cut ties the outlook for gold directly to the Fed. Gold has struggled to attract new bullish momentum because the Federal Reserve has maintained a tightening bias⁸. With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the latest employment and inflation figures could complicate the outlook for the metal⁷.

Prices came under some selling pressure after data showed the US economy created 165k jobs in October⁸. Gold and silver turned volatile after the strong jobs data but remained on track to snap a multi-week streak⁷. Gold held critical $4000 support, though strong jobs data and inflation risks threaten its recovery⁶.

The metal still had support from the election. Gold was set for its biggest weekly gain since August after the US midterms⁵.

What to watch

Central bank buying remains a pillar for bulls. Gold’s broader investment appeal remains supported by central bank purchases and potential renewed inflows, one analyst said⁶. Longer-horizon investors are looking to bet on the trend of central bank gold accumulation, or to seek protection against macro policy tail risks⁵.

Goldman’s revision makes the Fed the main variable in its gold outlook². The bank’s view is that rate hikes weigh on gold in the near term while its long-term case stays bullish, as the title of its report signals^2,3. The bull market has not died, but the Fed has changed the trade, in one reading of the cut⁴.

Investors will watch the next Fed decision and coming inflation data for signs of whether the hawkish shift that prompted Goldman’s revision deepens or fades^2,7.