Anthropic IPO buyers see a valuation as low as $1.1 trillion as the roadshow nears

Prospective buyers of Anthropic’s initial public offering see a valuation as low as $1.1 trillion^3,4. Other estimates put the potential valuation at $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, below some recent expectations³. That range is below the $1.5 trillion valuation that had been expected^6,7.

Anthropic was still expected to begin its IPO roadshow in the week of 9 November⁶. The offering plans ran into a punishing post-election market¹, and its valuation has come under pressure after the technology rout².

Investors had already balked at the $1.5 trillion goal, and the company may need to cut it⁷.

Why it matters to investors

The listing has become a test for the broader AI trade. Anthropic’s falling IPO valuation raises the stakes for that trade¹⁰, and the AI trade is now counting on the offering at a time that could hardly be worse^12,13. After AI stocks plummeted on Thursday, and as investors weighed the possible effects of Tuesday’s midterms, discussions of Anthropic’s valuation shifted¹⁰.

Current market conditions put Anthropic in a “very tough spot,” said Jay Goldberg^12,13. The company may have to delay its IPO or settle for a lower valuation¹³. Anthropic might have to reduce its IPO target, though one analyst says the offering will go ahead⁸.

Investors are rethinking what Anthropic is worth after the plunge in technology stocks⁹. Odds that Anthropic announces its IPO this year have been cut to 57% by one tracker, amid concerns about limits on data centers¹¹.

What to watch

The roadshow is the next marker⁶. Investors will watch whether Anthropic sets a price range near the $1.1 trillion level that buyers have floated^1,3, or holds out for more.

A second question is timing. The choice between delaying the IPO and accepting a lower valuation¹³ is the decision the wider AI trade is now watching^10,12. Every valuation estimate in circulation, from $1.1 trillion⁴ to $1.3 trillion³, sits below the $1.5 trillion goal^6,7. The odds of an announcement this year, put at 57%¹¹, are another gauge.

The market backdrop will weigh on both decisions. The offering ran into a punishing market after the election¹, and its valuation has been under pressure since the technology rout^2,9.