IMF’s Georgieva says central banks must weigh a possible slowdown in AI-driven growth

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday that central banks should factor in a possible loss of momentum in growth driven by artificial intelligence^1,2. She said central banks must consider potential slowdowns in AI-driven growth when shaping policy³, and that any weakening would need to be weighed as they decide how to tackle inflation¹².

Georgieva also addressed concerns about the world economy’s dependence on the AI investment boom⁴. She spoke during the managing director’s briefing on the Global Policy Agenda⁵ and at the IMF’s headquarters in Washington¹⁰. At this year’s Camdessus lecture she said that maintaining price stability remained central, as central banks face inflation, higher energy prices and rapid AI investment at the same time⁷.

One account of her remarks put the stakes in numbers: an AI slump could leave 2028 global GDP 1.1% below forecast⁶. She made the comments as technology-stock volatility unsettled global markets⁶.

Why it matters to investors

The IMF is telling central banks that the AI boom is now a variable they cannot ignore¹⁰. A cooling of AI investment could feed into interest-rate decisions¹¹, and the risk of slowing AI investment must be considered when policy is set, Georgieva warned⁸.

Her remarks cut two ways for markets. AI investment has helped cushion the impact of the Middle East war on the global economy, she said⁹. A slowdown in that investment would therefore remove a support for growth just as central banks are confronting inflation and higher energy prices^7,12.

That tension matters for rate expectations. If AI-driven growth weakens, central banks would have to weigh softer activity against still-elevated price pressure^2,12. The comments came as technology-stock volatility unsettled global markets⁶, a backdrop that makes the AI outlook a live question for policymakers¹⁰.

What to watch

Investors will watch whether central banks begin to cite AI investment explicitly in their policy statements, as Georgieva urged^1,3. The IMF’s estimate of a 1.1% hit to 2028 output in a slump scenario⁶ gives a benchmark for that debate.

The balance between inflation, energy prices and AI spending that she described⁷ will shape how quickly policymakers respond to any break in the AI investment cycle^8,11. Her message was that the possibility of such a break belongs in the policy calculus now^2,4.