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Goldman puts $120 oil back on the table if Hormuz shipping attacks widen

The bank lifted its Brent forecast and set out a separate scenario in which broader tanker attacks carry crude far above current levels.

Assembled by Claude from 11 sources at 11 outlets · Tuesday, September 8, 2026, Evening edition, 5:13 PM EDT · no human byline

Disclosure. This item was assembled by an AI from the RSS excerpts of the outlets tagged inline. No human wrote or checked it before publication. Feed selection and categories are editorial choices by Teresa Lo. Nothing here is investment advice.

What happened

Goldman Sachs told investors that Brent crude could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz broaden and intensify timesnownews.comfinance.yahoo.comthewealthadvisor.com. Daan Struyven, the bank's co-head of global commodities research, set out the scenario in an interview on Bloomberg TV timesnownews.cominvestmentnews.comtipranks.com. He said recent developments had increased the importance of that risk waya.mediahellenicshippingnews.com.

The $120 figure is a conditional scenario rather than the bank's central case. Alongside it, the commodities team led by Struyven raised its December 2026 Brent futures forecast by $5 to $85 a barrel finance.biggo.com. That revision was reported as a reversal of the direction the bank had been travelling in, driven by the same shipping-disruption risk that underpins the higher scenario finance.biggo.comwaya.media.

Where the accounts disagree

The published reports do not agree on where Goldman now sees prices settling. One account says Struyven expects Brent to average around US$80 a barrel next year, and frames the open question as whether oil can stay near US$100 fool.com.au. Another puts the December futures forecast at $85 finance.biggo.com. What the accounts share is that the $120 level is presented as possible rather than expected yellow.comtipranks.comhellenicshippingnews.com.

The trigger attached to that level also varies. Several reports tie it to attacks on vessels broadening and intensifying finance.yahoo.comthewealthadvisor.com. Another ties it to Hormuz disruptions lasting until 2027 cryptobriefing.com. An investor reading only a headline may therefore take away a much stronger claim than the bank appears to have made, and the distinction between the forecast and the scenario is the part that matters for positioning.

What to watch

The first variable is the tempo of attacks on tankers, which is what separates the central forecast from the higher case in the bank's own framing waya.mediahellenicshippingnews.com. Struyven described the risk as growing rather than realised hellenicshippingnews.com. Coverage of the call also pointed to the wider US and Iran confrontation as the driver keeping pressure on prices tipranks.comfinance.yahoo.com.

The second is supply policy. Reporting on the revision flags OPEC production decisions and the group's upcoming meetings as the main offsetting lever, alongside global demand cryptobriefing.com. Advisers were told to treat the scenario as a portfolio question rather than a forecast to trade investmentnews.com.

For allocators, the useful output is the width of the band, not the headline number. A December forecast of $85 sitting alongside a conditional path to $120 implies a wide range for energy costs, input prices and the inflation data that central banks are currently reacting to finance.biggo.cominvestmentnews.com.

Sources

  1. timesnownews.com: Brent Crude Could Hit $120 Per Barrel, Warns Goldman Sachs | Times Now (2026-09-08)
  2. fool.com.au: Could oil stay near US$100? Goldman Sachs just changed its forecast - Motley Fool (2026-09-08)
  3. waya.media: Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Reach USD 120 per Barrel if Shipping Disruptions Continue (2026-09-08)
  4. finance.biggo.com: Goldman Sachs Reverses Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Shipping Disruption Risk Could ... (2026-09-08)
  5. investmentnews.com: Goldman's $120 oil scenario puts advisor portfolios on alert - InvestmentNews (2026-09-08)
  6. yellow.com: Oil Could Reach $120 If Iran Conflict Disrupts Shipping, Goldman Sachs Warns | Yellow (2026-09-08)
  7. tipranks.com: Oil Could Surge to $120 if Hormuz Disruptions Escalate, Warns Goldman Sachs - TipRanks (2026-09-08)
  8. finance.yahoo.com: Goldman Sachs Says Oil Could Hit $120 as Trump Dismisses Diplomacy with Iran (2026-09-08)
  9. thewealthadvisor.com: Goldman Says $120 Oil Is Back on the Table as the War Moves Onto the Tankers (2026-09-08)
  10. hellenicshippingnews.com: Oil could hit $120 a barrel on rising Mideast shipping risk – report (2026-09-08)
  11. cryptobriefing.com: Goldman sees Brent crude hitting $120 if Hormuz disruptions last until 2027 - Crypto Briefing (2026-09-08)