Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed lifts rates for the first time in three years
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point and its new projections point to one more increase before the year is out.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Fed & Monetary Policy
A unanimous vote gives Warsh cover against the White House
The Fed chairman raised rates over the president’s stated wishes, and every voter on the committee went with him.
Rival Hegemons
Beijing reframes its credit slump as the new normal
The central bank governor told China’s flagship party journal that slower loan growth is a structural adjustment, not a failure to be fixed with more lending.
GDP & Macro Reality
Shoppers spend, households despair: August retail sales rebound
Retail sales rose 1.2% last month while the main confidence gauge sank toward record lows, leaving the consumer reading split down the middle.
Rival Hegemons
Trade chiefs meet this weekend to set up the Trump-Xi summit
Treasury and the US trade representative will host China’s vice premier days before the two presidents meet in Washington, with tariffs, farm goods and AI risk all on the agenda.
GDP & Macro Reality
Watchdog puts a price on the DOGE buyouts
The Government Accountability Office found federal agencies paid $9.5 billion in employee leave in 2025, most of it to staff who had already agreed to leave.
Cabinet & Insiders
Bessent defends bond buybacks and $5,000 checks in a contentious hearing
The Treasury secretary told House lawmakers that rising yields reflect global issues, not US fiscal policy.
Structural Indicators
Long Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs as a 20-year auction clears at 5.42%
A weak sale of 20-year bonds and a 10-year yield above 5% put the long end, not the Fed, in charge of borrowing costs.
Tech Oligarchs
Tech leaders split in public over slowing AI development
Nvidia’s and Meta’s chief executives rejected calls for a coordinated slowdown that Anthropic and OpenAI have endorsed.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Dollar and short yields jump after the hike, gold slips
The front end of the curve repriced immediately while the long end barely moved, and the dollar firmed against the euro.
Tech Oligarchs
Ellison cancels his share sale as Oracle keeps sliding
Oracle’s co-founder terminated a trading plan that would have let him sell up to 50 million shares, in the middle of a losing streak and a fresh round of layoffs.
Structural Indicators
Panama Canal to cut transits again as the drought deepens
The canal authority is adding a new vessel limit from October, tightening a third trade chokepoint while Hormuz and the Red Sea are already constrained.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed set to raise rates for the first time under Warsh
Markets are pricing a quarter-point increase that would put the new Fed chair at odds with the White House.
Adversary’s Veto
Houthi gains at Bab el-Mandeb and a Saudi pipeline shutdown put two chokepoints in play
The UN Security Council met in emergency session as Yemen’s Red Sea coastline changed hands and Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline.
Crypto & Financial Engineering
Senate blocks the CLARITY Act and crypto assets fall
The industry’s top legislative priority failed to advance, sending bitcoin and listed crypto intermediaries lower.
Structural Indicators
Central banks keep buying gold, and bringing it home
The Dutch central bank has moved a large part of its North American gold out of the United States, and reserve managers elsewhere say the appetite for bullion has not faded.
Cabinet & Insiders
White House weighs wartime powers to build refining capacity
The administration is considering Defense Production Act funds for refiners as record diesel prices feed straight into freight and food costs.
GDP & Macro Reality
Budget office puts the Iran war at $38 billion with a $3 billion monthly tail
The Congressional Budget Office also lifted its inflation projection for early 2027 as Congress voted again to curb the president’s war powers.
Financial Regulation
US private credit default rate hits a record 6.3%
Fitch’s trailing-twelve-month measure reached a high just as European and US supervisors began asking who is holding the risk.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan expected to lift its policy rate to a 31-year high
A quarter-point move on Friday would take Japanese borrowing costs to their highest level in 31 years.
Empire-Behavior
EU offers Canada ‘associate member’ status as ties with Washington fray
The European Commission president proposed a first-of-its-kind arrangement that would pull Ottawa deeper into Europe’s economic and security architecture.
Economic Commentary
UK inflation rises to 3.1% on fuel as the Bank of England prepares to decide
Petrol and diesel drove British inflation to a five-month high two days before a rate decision.
Crypto & Financial Engineering
Sanctioned oil money and the stablecoin rails it runs on
Prosecutors are seeking forfeiture of $61 million in crypto tied to Iranian oil sales, in a case that puts a stablecoin issuer and an exchange at the centre of sanctions enforcement.
Structural Indicators
US diesel breaks $6 a gallon as oil supply fears mount
Record pump prices arrive as commercial and strategic stockpiles run low and Washington weighs emergency refining measures.