Crypto & Financial Engineering
CLARITY Act dies in the Senate and the agencies say they will write the rules anyway
Crypto market-structure legislation failed by one vote, and the SEC and CFTC immediately said they would act without Congress.
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Adversary’s Veto
Oil retreats on a Saudi workaround while Iran keeps Hormuz shut
Crude fell for a second day on rerouted Saudi exports and a repair estimate, not on any change to the blockade itself.
Structural Indicators
Treasury curve flattens after the hawkish Fed as the 10-year fights the 5% line
Short-dated yields rose faster than long ones after the rate decision, and the Treasury and the Fed are publicly at odds over what to do about the long end.
Megadonors
Trump donor Harold Hamm’s Continental signs a preliminary Venezuela oil deal
The shale pioneer’s company has agreed a memorandum of understanding with PDVSA, and the energy secretary called it a milestone.
Crypto & Financial Engineering
CLARITY Act dies in the Senate, pushing crypto rulemaking back to the agencies
A 49 to 50 procedural vote sank the industry’s main legislative bet, and the SEC and CFTC now hold the pen.
Adversary’s Veto
Hormuz traffic falls to three ships as diesel hits records and Saudi repairs begin
Vessel transits through the world’s most important oil chokepoint have collapsed even as CENTCOM insists the strait remains open.
Structural Indicators
Ten-year Treasury yield tops 5 per cent as Bessent defends his bond toolkit
US borrowing costs are at their highest since 2007, and the interest bill on a 40.1 trillion dollar debt compounds with them.
Empire-Behavior
Trump threatens to cut EU trade over Brussels plan to make Canada an associate member
The European Commission’s proposal drew a tariff threat the same day Washington moved to strip Canadian goods from federal procurement.
Tech Oligarchs
Zuckerberg and Huang reject an AI slowdown as OpenAI discloses six more incidents
The industry has split over whether frontier labs should pace themselves, days after models were found working around their guardrails.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of England holds at 3.75%, signals a rise, and stops selling long gilts
Britain kept rates on hold in a split vote while rewriting the plan that governs how much long-dated debt it sells back to the market.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed raises rates a quarter point in Warsh’s first move, and Trump demands 1%
The Federal Reserve’s first increase in three years was unanimous, and the new chairman hinted it may not be the last.
Structural Indicators
Gold falls, then rebounds, and the coverage cannot agree which happened
Bullion dived immediately after the Fed decision and recovered within the day, leaving two incompatible headlines about the same session.
Empire-Behavior
Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over its associate-membership offer to Canada
Brussels floated associate status for Ottawa, and Washington answered with a threat to tariff Europe and halt trade.
GDP & Macro Reality
Apollo says the credit behind the AI build-out is repricing
Widening hyperscaler default swaps reflect debt-financed capex, rising leverage and negative free cash flow, the firm argues.
GDP & Macro Reality
August retail sales rebound 1.2 per cent while consumer sentiment keeps sinking
Spending beat forecasts across almost every category even as the Michigan index fell to 51.0.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023, and says it is not done
A unanimous quarter-point increase takes the target range to 3.75 to 4 per cent, with most officials projecting another rise before year-end.
Rival Hegemons
House passes Russia sanctions bill, handing Trump a 100 per cent tariff weapon
The measure clears Congress 262 to 159 and authorises secondary tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Cabinet & Insiders
Trump demands 1 per cent rates after the hike as Warsh says the Fed will stay in its lane
The president attacked the decision within hours while insisting he still backs the chair he appointed.
Tech Oligarchs
Huang says Nvidia will sell twice as many chips next year, into a higher cost of capital
The volume guidance accelerated on the same day the AI complex absorbed its first rate rise in three years.
Rival Hegemons
Huawei pulls its next AI chip forward by nine months and tells Chinese labs to accelerate
The Ascend 960DT is now promised for the first quarter of 2027, three quarters earlier than planned.
Financial Regulation
Nobody agrees what the private credit default rate is
Estimates for the same asset class range from about 1% to 19%, depending entirely on who is doing the counting.
GDP & Macro Reality
Two official price tags for the Iran war, and forty-six senators asking for a third
The Congressional Budget Office and a Pentagon inspector general have put very different numbers on the same conflict, and neither is a full accounting.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of England holds at 3.75 per cent, breaking with the Fed and the ECB
A sixth consecutive hold, paired with a warning that rates are likely to rise if high energy prices persist.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan set to lift its policy rate to a 31-year high as the yen slides
Tokyo is expected to move to 1.25 per cent on Friday, a day after a hawkish Fed pushed the yen past the 156 level.