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Second-quarter growth revised up to 2.2% as consumer confidence slides

The final estimate of spring output was stronger than economists expected, while the Conference Board's confidence index fell to its lowest reading in more than a decade.

Assembled by Claude from 9 sources at 9 outlets · Wednesday, September 30, 2026, Evening edition, 5:25 PM EDT · no human byline

Disclosure. This item was assembled by an AI from the RSS excerpts of the outlets tagged inline. No human wrote or checked it before publication. Feed selection and categories are editorial choices by Teresa Lo. Nothing here is investment advice.

What happened

The US economy grew at an annualised 2.2 percent in the second quarter, an upgrade to the previous estimate durangoherald.com. The figure came in the last of three Commerce Department estimates of second-quarter GDP growth durangoherald.com, and was revised higher from both the advance and second estimates according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis third estimate advisorperspectives.com. The Wall Street Journal reported the revision as taking growth to 2.2 percent from a prior estimate of 1.5 percent wsj.com.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be unrevised reuters.com, and Reuters attributed the upgrade to robust consumer spending reuters.com.

Spending data pointed the same way. Inflation-adjusted US consumer spending rose the most in 17 months tradingeconomics.comhellenicshippingnews.com, with goods spending up 1.3 percent, reversing a 0.5 percent decline in the prior month hellenicshippingnews.comtradingeconomics.com.

Why it matters to investors

Sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. The Conference Board index registered 81.9 against a consensus of 89.2 and a previous reading of 88.6 econbrowser.com, which Econbrowser described as three standard deviations below its mean econbrowser.com.

Consumer sentiment tumbled to a 12-year low this month on the Conference Board measure finance.yahoo.com, and a separate account put the reading at the lowest level since 2014 lbmjournal.com. Equities took their cue from the output data rather than the survey: the Journal filed the GDP revision under signs of strength in the US economy powering stocks wsj.com.

The two series disagree about the same household. Spending accelerated to its fastest pace in 17 months tradingeconomics.com while confidence fell to a multi-year low finance.yahoo.comlbmjournal.com, a combination that leaves both a soft-landing and a stall reading defensible on current evidence.

What to watch

Whether spending follows sentiment down is the central question. The confidence series is now far below consensus expectations econbrowser.com, and the reference points Econbrowser used for its comparison run from January 2021 through February 2025 econbrowser.com, a window that predates the current energy shock.

For policy, the revision cuts against the case for easing: stronger measured growth durangoherald.comadvisorperspectives.com and accelerating consumption hellenicshippingnews.com are the conditions under which the debate stays on the timing of further tightening rather than relief. Home builders framed the confidence drop explicitly around economic conditions and Fed rate hikes weighing on sentiment and the labour market outlook lbmjournal.com.

The next monthly spending and confidence prints will show which series was the leading indicator tradingeconomics.comfinance.yahoo.com.

Sources

  1. durangoherald.com: US economy grew a solid 2.2% in the second quarter, government says, upgrading previous estimate (2026-09-30)
  2. reuters.com: US second-quarter GDP revised higher amid robust consumer spending - Reuters (2026-09-30)
  3. advisorperspectives.com: Q2 GDP Third Estimate : Real GDP Revised Upward to 2.2% - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (2026-09-30)
  4. wsj.com: Stock Market Today: Signs of Strength in U.S. Economy Power Stocks - WSJ (2026-09-30)
  5. hellenicshippingnews.com: US Real Consumer Spending Rises Most in 17 Months | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (2026-09-30)
  6. tradingeconomics.com: US Real Consumer Spending Rises Most in 17 Months - Trading Economics (2026-09-30)
  7. finance.yahoo.com: Bad News, Mr. President: Consumer Confidence Is In The Toilet - Yahoo Finance (2026-09-30)
  8. lbmjournal.com: NAHB: Consumer confidence sinks to the lowest level since 2014 - LBM Journal (2026-09-30)
  9. econbrowser.com: Confidence Slips (Way) Below Consensus (2026-09-29)