SNB minutes show the franc-sale threat was judged no longer needed as haven flows ebbed

The Swiss National Bank judged last month that its threat of franc sales was no longer needed after war-induced haven flows into the currency had ebbed^1,2. The minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting were released on Thursday⁸. They summarise the Governing Board’s discussion at its September assessment⁵.

At the monetary policy assessment of 22 and 23 September 2026, the Governing Board decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged⁵. At the time of that decision, the board saw no need to increase its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market^3,4. Heightened readiness to intervene was no longer considered necessary⁷. The board’s assessment covered both its rate and its currency stance^3,5.

The minutes revealed a moderately positive economic assessment⁸. The SNB’s growth forecast is 1.5 to 2.0%, and growth of approximately 1.5% remains expected for 2027⁷. The SNB said global inflation will likely be largely determined by energy prices⁶.

Why it matters to investors

The step back from intervention readiness matters for the franc and for investors who borrow in it. The SNB flagged the franc’s appeal for carry trades as its intervention readiness eased⁷. The SNB has stopped signalling that it is ready to step up franc sales^1,4.

The franc has recovered its safe-haven status amid turmoil in bond markets⁸. That puts the SNB’s September judgment, made when haven flows had ebbed, against a market in which demand for havens has returned^1,8.

The SNB’s view on inflation also shapes its policy. It expects energy prices to largely determine global inflation⁶. The haven flows it judged had ebbed were themselves war-induced².

What to watch

The test is whether renewed haven flows into the franc, amid bond market turmoil, push the board to revisit its view that heightened intervention readiness is no longer needed^7,8. The minutes describe the position at the September assessment, not a commitment for later meetings^3,5.

Energy prices, which the SNB expects to drive global inflation, are the other variable for its next assessment⁶. The bank’s growth forecast, approximately 1.5% for 2027, and its moderately positive assessment are the baseline against which new data will be read^7,8.