Hong Kong lifts its 2026 growth forecast to 4.8% as the AI boom powers trade

Hong Kong’s government on Friday raised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 4.8%³.

The government said the new figure replaces the 3.5% to 4.5% range it gave in its August review^2,5.

It is the second time in a few months that the city has raised its full-year forecast, after the global artificial intelligence boom turbocharged trade¹.

Final figures put growth in the third quarter at 5.2% from a year earlier, in line with expectations of 5.2%⁴.

The government said that followed growth of 4.2% in the preceding quarter⁵.

Officials also pointed to strong growth momentum heading into the fourth quarter².

The government published the numbers in its report on third-quarter economic performance, alongside updated GDP and price forecasts for 2026⁵.

Why it matters to investors

The upgrade ties Hong Kong’s outlook directly to the AI boom, which the city credits with turbocharging its trade^1,2.

Growth has accelerated through the year, from 4.2% in the second quarter to 5.2% in the third, according to the official data^4,5.

In the first half of 2026, real GDP grew 5.1% from a year earlier, a sign of resilience that business advisers say gives companies scope to put cash flow to work⁶.

The expansion is not broad, however: “We see the growth concentrated in a few sectors, which is AI-led,” said Regina Lee, head of commercial banking at Hang Seng Bank⁶.

She said the momentum brings opportunities alongside the need to navigate a landscape of uneven growth⁶.

That concentration means the forecast rests heavily on the same AI-driven trade flows that prompted the upgrade^1,6.

What to watch

The figures are the government’s own estimates and forecasts, and the next test is whether fourth-quarter data confirm the momentum officials described^2,5.

Third-quarter growth matched expectations, so the upgrade reflects the government’s reading of momentum rather than a surprise in the data^2,4.

Investors will also watch whether the gains spread beyond the AI-linked sectors the banker described, or remain concentrated in a narrow part of the economy⁶.

The raise was the second in months, so a further revision would show whether officials still see upside in trade tied to the AI boom¹.

The government’s half-yearly economic report in August set the earlier range, and the next scheduled review will show how much of the upgrade survives^2,6.