Analysts & Strategists
Big banks open earnings season with mixed results and a rare JPMorgan miss
JPMorgan earned $15.3 billion in the third quarter and still fell short of expectations, while Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs beat.
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
G2 — Adversary’s Veto
OPEC trims its demand outlook and Japan moves to subsidise oil importers
The cartel cut its demand growth forecast again while Tokyo backed help for refiners paying to route crude around the Gulf.
Fed & Monetary Policy
The IMF lifts Britain’s growth forecast and a Bank of England rate setter calls it proof a rise is needed
The fund raised its 2026 forecast for the UK to 1.3% while warning that inflation will rise more sharply than it previously thought.
Analysts & Strategists
A Chinese memory advance drops the Kospi 5.46% and extends the chip selloff
Progress on a denser DRAM design at China’s CXMT sent Samsung, SK Hynix and SoftBank lower and pushed global equities down for a second session.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Williams backs one more rate rise this year, and reports split on what he said about 2027
The New York Fed president’s remarks lifted stocks off their lows and pulled Treasury yields down, but outlets differ on whether he ruled out further increases next year.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan officials lean against a back-to-back rate rise in October
Policymakers are reluctant to move twice in a row even as households’ inflation expectations stay high and wholesale prices keep rising.
Government & Institutional
The Supreme Court will decide whether DOGE’s internal records can stay secret
The justices agreed to hear the administration’s fight with a watchdog group over whether the body that cut federal jobs and funding is subject to open-records law.
Cabinet & Insiders
Vance invokes wartime powers to expand Delek’s refinery in Tyler, Texas
The administration is using the Defense Production Act to lift fuel output at a single named refiner, with no cost or timeline disclosed.
Tech Oligarchs
Nvidia plans $2 billion of European AI deals and takes a stake in Doctolib
Jensen Huang said the next tranche of European investments will be announced within a week, as Nvidia backed four French companies.
Detention Economy
San Antonio sues Homeland Security to stop an East Side detention centre
The city says federal officials skipped the required environmental review before converting a warehouse into an immigration detention facility.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Goolsbee calls AI-driven inflation a problem that is jumping out of its lane
The Chicago Fed president recast the AI investment boom as a source of broad overheating rather than a temporary supply shock.
Cabinet & Insiders
A six-hour meeting in Florida sits behind Washington’s new push to end the Ukraine war
US envoys pressed Ukrainian negotiators at a Miami golf club, and the trips to Moscow that were meant to follow have been postponed.
G2 — Adversary’s Veto
Attacks on Hormuz shipping reach a wartime high as Europe faces winter with low gas reserves
Six vessels were hit in a single day, and both Fitch and the IMF now assume the strait stays shut into next year.
Structural Indicators
The IMF warns bond yields could spike in a disorderly way and flags leverage in AI and private credit
The fund’s financial stability report puts the sharpest losses from an AI repricing in the United States.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Waller says higher long-term yields are doing part of the Fed’s work for it
The Fed governor also called the administration a threat to the central bank’s independence while saying inflation expectations remain anchored.
Tech Oligarchs
JPMorgan blocks outside AI agents from reaching customer accounts
The largest US bank says it will not let third-party assistants such as Muse and Instinct into accounts, and warns customers that using them transfers liability to them.
Structural Indicators
A brutal session for chip stocks and a fund manager survey point to the AI trade turning
Semiconductors sold off hard while a monthly survey put AI capex at the top of investors’ credit worries.
G2 — Rival Hegemons
Visa wins the People’s Bank of China’s approval to prepare a domestic card clearing business
The Chinese central bank’s decision is a preparatory approval rather than a licence to clear transactions.
Financial Regulation
The Fed is reorganising bank supervision into five geographic regions
The overhaul puts a regional leader over each new area and is expected to improve coordination with state regulators.
G2 — Rival Hegemons
BMW’s quarterly deliveries fall 6.3% as Europe’s carmakers open the Paris show
A slump in China is now visible in German delivery numbers while Chinese brands press their case in Europe.
GDP & Macro Reality
Federal contract spending is set to cross $1 trillion despite DOGE’s cuts
Procurement is on track for a record even as the cost-cutting drive claimed reductions elsewhere.
Tech Oligarchs
Nvidia’s share of China’s data-centre AI chip market falls to 34% as Huawei closes the gap
A new report puts Nvidia’s first-half share at about a third of a market it once almost entirely owned.
GDP & Macro Reality
US home sales readings conflict as mortgage rates climb again
One account has September sales rising for the first time since May; another has sales at their lowest in more than a decade.
Financial Regulation
Washington is expected to lean harder on markets whichever party wins the midterms
A scenario sketch circulating among corporate clients argues both parties will face pressure to intervene more in markets after November.