Structural Indicators
Ten-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002 as the bond rout widens
US long rates reached a twenty-four-year peak, UK gilts their worst level since 1998, and Treasuries have just closed their worst quarter since 1994.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed watchdog clears Powell as Trump demands he leave the board
The inspector general found deficiencies but no misconduct in the headquarters renovation; the president called for a resignation and an investigation anyway.
Tech Oligarchs
AI chiefs sign a self-policing accord at the White House
Executives from Nvidia, Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI signed a voluntary safety pledge that Trump framed as a rebranding of artificial intelligence as super intelligence.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed officials talk markets out of an October rate increase
Two of the Fed’s most senior voices said there is no urgency to move again, and traders cut the odds of a hike this month.
GDP & Macro Reality
Second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% while consumer confidence falls to a 2014 low
The final reading of second-quarter growth came in well above the previous estimate and above forecasts, on the same week that household confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Cabinet & Insiders
Trump announces South Korean funding for Alaska LNG as Seoul says nothing is approved
The president presented a $54 billion Alaska gas project as backed by South Korean money and part of a $200 billion energy package, while Seoul said the investment has not been approved and will require commercial viability.
Analysts & Strategists
Bridgewater’s chief executive warns AI could dislocate 18% of US jobs
Nir Bar Dea put a number on the hedge fund’s view of AI’s labour risk while the firm runs a $2 billion AI fund.
G2 — Empire-Behavior
Washington presses Europe to open its diesel reserves or face an export ban
US officials told France and Germany to release stocks, and European governments agreed on what they called an assertive response.
AI Backlash
FTC opens broad investigation into OpenAI and Anthropic after rogue-agent breaches
The Federal Trade Commission is investigating leading AI developers over potential safety risks and consumer harms, a day after the same executives signed a voluntary safety accord at the White House.
GDP & Macro Reality
SNAP’s funding model shifts to the states as new rules take effect
From 1 October, states pick up a larger share of food-stamp costs just as tighter eligibility rules and a cost-of-living increase land together.
G2 — Rival Hegemons
China’s central bank trims its policy lending rate and discounts mortgages
The People’s Bank of China joined other agencies in a pro-growth package that cuts the pledged supplementary lending rate, widens relending quotas and subsidises home loans.
G2 — Adversary’s Veto
Crude exports through Hormuz return to pre-war levels and Brent slides
Producers and shipping have restored Gulf flows, pulling Brent back toward $96 while Tehran ties a formal reopening to US guarantees.
Financial Regulation
Private credit stress spreads from Australia as US regulators widen retail access
Redemption freezes and write-downs in Australia’s private credit market have drawn global attention and central bank warnings, in the same week the SEC made it easier for retail investors to buy the asset class.
Tech Oligarchs
White House secures voluntary AI accord and orders agencies to say Super Intelligence
President Trump announced that leading AI executives had signed a voluntary agreement on reviewing frontier models, and signed an executive order replacing the term artificial intelligence with Super Intelligence across the executive branch.
Financial Regulation
Fed finalizes bank stress-test overhaul in a win for big banks, with Barr dissenting
The Federal Reserve Board approved final rules that make its annual stress test more transparent and cut the volatility of the capital requirements it produces, over the objection of Governor Michael Barr.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Fed watchdog clears Powell over headquarters renovation as Trump demands he resign
The Federal Reserve’s inspector general found no criminal wrongdoing by former chair Jerome Powell in the central bank’s headquarters project, and the president responded by calling for his resignation and asking the Justice Department to study the report.
Structural Indicators
Global bond rout deepens as 10-year Treasury yield reaches levels last seen in 2002
Relentless selling pushed the 10-year US Treasury note above 5.3% and dragged UK, French, Japanese and Australian government yields to multi-decade highs.
Fed & Monetary Policy
October Fed hike odds slip below a coin flip as officials split on timing
Cooler August inflation and a dovish signal from New York Fed President John Williams cut market-implied odds of an October increase, even as three other officials argued more tightening is needed.
G2 — Adversary’s Veto
Three oil tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz as CENTCOM diverts 125 vessels
Shipping intelligence reported three Liberian-flagged tankers hit by unknown projectiles while transiting the strait, even as crude flows through the chokepoint returned to near prewar levels.
Crypto & Financial Engineering
Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Coinbase consortium launches Open USD stablecoin
A new issuer backed by the card networks and the largest payment processors brought a dollar-pegged token to market on Wednesday, entering a stablecoin sector dominated by Tether and Circle.
Cabinet & Insiders
Washington presses France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face a US export ban
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has asked Europe to release more than a third of its diesel reserves, with a US export ban held out as the alternative, as the administration weighs restrictions on foreign diesel sales.
Cabinet & Insiders
Boeing wins the Navy’s F/A-XX fighter award worth more than $20 billion
The Pentagon picked Boeing over Northrop to build the Navy’s first sixth-generation carrier aircraft.
Crypto & Financial Engineering
Treasury lets states file stablecoin certifications before their rules are final
The first rule written under the GENIUS Act sets out forms and review procedures and allows conditional state filings while legislatures finish their work.
Detention Economy
Supreme Court takes up the administration’s mandatory immigration detention policy
The justices agreed to review a policy that holds tens of thousands of immigrants in detention.